MORNING GRAINS 6/18/13
Exports: So. Korea buys 58,000t opt/org.(Black Sea), 69,000t U.S. or So.America; Taiwan cancels 23,000t tender (price too high).
Comments: 64% gd./excel. up 1% (of note: Il. 57%, Iowa 50%, Ohio 81%); Asian feed millers look to substitute wheat with corn due to lower corn prices; FMOC results tomorrow on monetary policy; open interest fell 10,900 led by July off 25,750 amid good volume. Well, technically here we are: July back to the high end of its broad trading ranges and since end-April a no-brainer short sale. How’s about now? Maybe not. For some reason it feels like it wants to fill that gap at $6.76 or more first. Not being a necessarily rabid bear near term I’ll watch and wait a bit.
Exports: Taiwan cancels tender 12,000t U.S. beans. China buys 240,000t new crop.
Comments: Plantings 85% vs. 91% avg. is well in line; gd./excel 64%; Canada Canola sees wet, cool weather delays plantings and development; India monsoon kills 60 so far on flooding, crops OK; China futures higher on light oversold technical buying apparently; open interest rose 5,450 led by Nov. up 6,700 (funds?) amid light-side volume. Trading July beans demands one’s near complete attention in its volatile range; is August trying to form a head & shoulders-type formation? If I’m right on July corn wait if selling July beans. Tough market.
Exports: Japan in 64,993t opt/org.
Comments: Japan’s tender includes U.S. except for White wheat again (that GMO thing); Ukraine harvest running early and very good yields so far; northern U.S. plains less rains?; HRW harvest 11% vs. 25% avg. and under estimates (none Ks.); spring wheat plantings 92% vs. 97% avg., crop in 68% gd./excel. condition; open interest fell 6,800 led by July and Dec. amid good volume. As mentioned, July held its low-end range by a hair yesterday courtesy of July corn I believe.