Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 6/14/13
MORNING GRAINS 6/14/13

MORNING GRAINS 6/14/13

Corn:

Exports: So.Korea buys 73,410t feed wheat U.S., 37,560t feed barley Australia.

Comments: South Korea’s wheat to be shipped from gulf by the way; Goldman Sachs apparently now bearish and short new crop, sees lower prices for both beans and corn ahead (this fund loves to hype its positions); July corn certainly in a congestion phase but the Sept. leans bearish filling its May 30 gap at $5.67-1/2 this week and in a 11-day down trend; for the Sept., a likely near term bear defense over $5.82 (t/l) needed to get stops. Big question seems talk of light available supplies with no early harvest keeping Sept. old crop, for a few weeks. We’ll see, I do not subscribe to that but admit the July blindsided me last month.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: End of week light buying/shortcovering; July’s ability to again defend its $15.00 area (several hits at $15.06, not sure why that particular price); Argentine strike starts tomorrow to Wed.; one weather report sees lighter rains into the 15-day outlook; China futures lower with the CBOT; China OK’s bean imports on new GMO from Germany BASF and Monsanto’s Far East LTD.; open interest rose 2,800 even as July slips 16,300 amid moderate volume. Standing aside July has been great advice as one look at a chart suggests, though it’s been a good trading vehicle; August well under its Monday low of $14.44 with significant support expected to the $14.17-1/2 area for now. Being a Friday and a “weather market weekend”™, doubtful we’ll get that low.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: India’s Monsoon on track: government estimates July will be 101% of average and August at 96% of average; Indonesia now studying the U.S. GMO situation; Russian harvest in south 10-days early with strong yields (total grain crop est. 95mln.m/t’s vs. last year’s drought of 71.7mln.); open interest rose 9,400 even as July fell 11,600 (U/Z up +21,000!) amid strong volume……even then, July held its May low of $6.74 (yest. Low $6.75) as did the September; hence oversold the only apparent wild card if a whipsaw is in order. No opinion change.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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