MORNING GRAINS 6/04/13
Exports: South Korea buys 50,000t So. African food corn.
Comments: Plantings 91% complete vs. 95% avg. and in line with estimates; crop ratings 1st time at 63% gd./excel. vs. 72% yr. (wasn’t last year early unusually good on way early plantings? Before it turned south? Maybe the opposite this year; open interest fell 8,300 led by July off 6900 AND Dec./May off 5700 combined….yesterday’s break then long liquidation on less than expected rains I would guess; and this time of year my old readers cringe when I revive an old saying of mine: “the drought will commence once the flood waters recede”. I am using yesterday’s failure in the July corn (as mentioned) as a bearish, sell rally indicator.
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Plantings 57% vs. 74% year and in line with average trade estimates; China futures slightly higher on CBOT rally yesterday though their soymeal traded lower; open interest rose 4600 even as July fell 3100 amid light/moderate volume…again, funds likely buyers. Hedgers have some excellent opportunities in puts lately while speculatively I remain in a trading affair mode for futures (risk the problem right now); and lastly, July’s reversal high was not taken out.
Exports: Japan buys 163,300t U.S./Can./Aust.
Comments: Japan has stopped buying/unloading western white wheat over the GMO deal, the purchase alluded to above was for dark northern; India’s Ag Minister says monsoon’s arrival should mean a bumper food grain crop ( edit. Note: keep in mind they still have grain on the ground stockpiles from old crop); spring wheat 64% gd,/excel. vs.77% year; winter wheat 32% gd./excel. vs. 31% week; open interest rose 8,300 led by September and July ’14 (even this July was up some!) and considering the action yesterday, a mini-battle of their own. I still stand with the bears.