Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 5/5/14
MORNING GRAINS 5/5/14

May 9th USDA S/D report.

Corn:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Looks like the weekend ended with a spillover rally from the wheat spike higher; from the psychology of the deepening Ukraine crisis; likely shortcovering. Plantings tonight seen at 25%-35% (vs. 42% avg.); USDA Friday will kick off a lot of talk we’ll start to mention from time to time; open interest fell 4900 led by both the May and the July mid moderate volume;
C-O-T report: leaned meaningfully negative. Otherwise, May corn holding where it should at its major m/a’s at $4.94-1/4 to $4.90-3/4.
By the way, a brutal food shortage hitting Chicago today of all days: Mexican limes.
And we all know what day it is.
SOYBEANS:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Well, so far Clint is alright as May beans held its major support in the low $14.60’s but so far prices not ‘racing’ higher as they have in the past. Friday’s S/D report certainly to be argumentative: raising exports again to lower the old crop carryover again vs. raising imports and possibly raising carryover, or keeping it unchanged. Will we get ANY confirmation of imports before the report? If not just one more upside whipsaw? Open interest fell 7500 led by July off 9,000 amid light volume (open interest on the down suggests old longs may believe the game is over); C-O-T report: to me indecisive. In other news: Asian CPO lower in part on a weak China PMI report.
Wheat:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Not sure if less rain than expected or the deepening Ukraine crisis prompted the gap higher overnight, Whatever, a chart breakout to the upside is visible. July left a gap at $7.23-7.203/4 and a close under likely will be a bear defense area? No surprise wheat whipping around, just tough to figure which way. For now, we’ll give benefit of the doubt and respect the charts and put aside my “$7.00 export curse” for now. Just beware the air.
Open interest fell 1,000 led by July off 2600 amid light volume (not necessarily a bull sign).
C-O-T report: leaned neutral/negative.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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