Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 5/27/14
MORNING GRAINS 5/27/14

Corn:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Weather over the weekend reported generally very good for rapid plantings with only North Dakota seemingly ‘rained out’; Ukraine crisis seems to be cooling off after the weekend elections; plantings seen running 85-87% vs. 88% avg.; Minn. was drier allowing some catch up; open interest N/A; C-O-T report: leaned bullishly. Market oversold and as plantings reach completion I look for a consolidation/recovery as we swing to ‘extended weather’ forecasts; new swing lows overnight; holding $4.68 might clue-in support area. Also, see meal below.
SOYBEANS:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Sharply lower as this dance continues; are we not STILL in need of rationing? Even if we cannot find out just where the Brazilian bean imports are, they will certainly ease some old crop demand; talk of tightness after a bumper crop somewhat misleading: we exported the hell out of beans to China before their slowdown; El Nino touted as a bullish development if it occurs but so might an early frost….and some believe scientifically an El Nino could be beneficial; plantings seen at 55-60%; funds to start their July ‘roll’ exit; some talk cash meal looking toppy; C-O-T report: leaned friendly; nearby support $14.95-14.85; China futures lower especially meal; I have to respect the old crop and its making new highs even after a sharp correction. I just will not be a “believer” in a convoluted bull market. Keeping a trading affair stance has kept me sane however until we get a downside. Oh, everybody in the pool: Argentine’s slow sales (i.e. harvest delays/currency) some say keeping U.S. beans high-priced and if sales of meal stay slow the U.S. will be tight all summer. We are in a manufactured squeeze.

Wheat:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: New lows overnight and a gap at $6.51-1/4-6.48; pressure seen from more favorable U.S. weather here, Ukraine crisis cooling off, the Black Sea region doing well generally on their crops; E.U. wheat a three month low on that and on a “rosy’ crop outlook in the E.U.; north Dakota rained out over the weekend?; C-O-T report: leaned friendly; when corn bottoms out for a consolidation, so to perhaps wheat on oversold but we still need EXPORTS to sustain any decent rally.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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