Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 5/23/14
MORNING GRAINS 5/23/14

Corn:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Weather today ahead of the long weekend demands an early close! But….not good for the CME stockholders perhaps. So, normal times. I read more about an early El Nino will be perfect for the summer growing season; trade talk EPA gives its final report on biofuels today; July corn lounging around its 200-100 day m/a’s at $4.77-1/2-4.73 and with the long weekend and possibly EPA decisions next week, will likely stay in their beach clothes. Close over $4.84-1/2 to stabilize the downtrend? Open interest rose 4900 even as July falls 5400 amid moderate volume.
SOYBEANS:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: With China auctioning off beans, maybe they’ll sell us some of theirs instead of the ones regurgitated out of ‘switches’ from South America; heard talk the U.S. already received 130,000t (imported and on shore) and another 375,000t waiting to ship out of Brazil. But they are not here yet remember. In some ways our usually efficient markets seem uncommonly influenced by outside influences and not necessarily in a good way (how’s that for vagueness?). But more questions arise, this time over why several countries bought U.S. beans on the sales report at a seemingly premium to South America? Both beans and meal. China futures strongly lower as was soyoil but palm oil sharply lower (yesterday’s weekly sales for soyoil 41,000t nearly all china). Charts suggests nearby support at the 10-20 day m/a’s at $14.87-14.83. By not ‘marrying’ the market we avoided a lot of grief but not all of it. A quick glance at a chart says why. One day a hero, next day a bum.

Wheat:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Oklahoma’s drought expanding but the market knows it; some help from recent rains in Ks.; weekly export sales again suggests my “$7.00 curse” was still alive and well; open interest rose 4555 amid strong volume. But it handled it well and may indicate short-saturation’ perhaps; nearby support $6.58-6.50-1/4 (200-100 m/a’s respectively) could hold it head of the weekend.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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