Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 5/21/14
MORNING GRAINS 5/21/14

Corn:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Weather the next several days into next week appears decent for plantings; China April U.S. corn imports 8,500t dn. 98% month (dn. 40% yr.) and from all sources fell 78%; China begin its reserves auction tomorrow; open interest rose 4,800 even s July falls 3500 amid moderate volume; on the charts, overnight new swing low, next minor support $4.70-4.68-1/2. Well, not much loss or gain if played from the long side for trading turns only; otherwise the longer term bear remains in place.

SOYBEANS:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: China April U.S. soybean imports up 53% on month to 2.5mln. (on yr. up 32.6% @ 16.260mln.m/t’s); report has Brazilian prices return to $50/mt under U.S.; more talk China crushers are getting near breakeven margins; on the charts, reminds me of the corn chart before it fell out of bed but, hey, I am prejudiced; open interest rose 3,200 led by July up 1140 amid moderate volume. So far, both sides of the latest ‘inside’ treading affair at roughly $15.00 to $14.50′s.

Wheat:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: A look at the Black Sea area: Ukraine Agrarian Confederation: grain harvest likely 60mln.m/t’s vs. 63mln..yr. due to lower plantings; one weather group sees rains next 6-10 days for southern Russia; Russia’s largest grain operator (Rusagrotrans) sees grain harvest of 95-97mln.m/t’s vs. 92.4mln. 2013 with 2014 exports 27-28mln. vs. 25.3mln. yr.; Russia reportedly offering Iraq wheat at a $50/mt discount; and for kicks, China’s April imports from U.S. 0, off 100% month (for year, up 220% but to 588,000t). Open interest little changed in total even as July falls 4700 (rest rise spread out) amid good volume. July wheat just hovering over swing/range lows, under $6.60 projects to $6.40 near term. Like the corn, day trading from the long side went plus and minus minor so if doing it, do it in the context of an overall bear market.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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