Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 5/20/14
MORNING GRAINS 5/20/14

Corn:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Plantings 73% right in line an vs. 76% avg., of note N.Dakota 17% vs. 54% avg.; Ukraine Ag Minister says plantings lag but at 90% completed; NOAA looks for a great corn summer?; open interest fell 11,000 as July off 12,700 and Dec. off 1200 amid moderate/light volume; July corn sitting at its March 12 low of $4.77 after taking it out by an inch yesterday. Probe the long side for a trading turn? Seems both the corn and wheat want to play with the beans and oversold could help it; hedgers lightly buying corn calls to protect hedge equity might be timed right.

SOYBEANS:
Exports: China buys 110,000t opt/org. new crop.
Comments: As mentioned yesterday, July beans revisited an area that was a cause of pain for insistent bears and actually DID use that and no fresh talk of Brazilian imports nor China cancellations opened the dance floor. At least this time we were prepared for the insanity. Then again, hats off to the (apparent) funds: open interest rose 8,900 between the N/X/H contracts amid moderate volume; 8-day range high of $14.96; I need it to close under major m/a’s before turning from a trading affair to a bear. China sells 240,000t out of a 300,000t auction.

Wheat:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: On the one hand, Paris wheat futures rose 1.3% on apparent concern over dryness in the U.S. (crop rating fell 1% to 29% gd./excel.) and Russia while the
Russian AG Minister said plantings are up on the year due to “good weather”; IGC says E.U. 2013-2014 exports to be record large and the 2014-2015 crop up 2% and that the ‘crop looks good'; Ukraine Ag Min. said plantings are ‘lagging’ but still 90% complete on expected area; spring plantings here at 49% complete vs. 68% on avg. led by No. Dakota scarce. Like the July corn, July Chicago wheat at an important area in the low $6.60’s here and oversold. Near term maybe can play for a bounce. Open interest rose 7,300 and short sellers may be over committed down here as well.

 

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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