Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 5/19/14
MORNING GRAINS 5/19/14

Plantings this afternoon.

Corn:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Trade looks for plantings to be 70-75% complete vs.59% wk. and 78% avg.; weather forecasts are conducive generally to further plantings; no export demand around; open interest fell 12,400 led by both July and the Dec. (makes the market a bit more oversold perhaps on liquidation), volume light side; C-O-T report: 1st time I said a “mixed” number here but evidence funds increasing shorts. July corn has what seems an important number at $4.77-1/4, a broader range low from early March.
SOYBEANS:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Futures again in a bear-spreading mode of new crop vs. old crop and a bearish tilt then to the proceedings; plantings seen a 35-40% vs. 20% wk. and 38% avg.; no fresh import news from Brazil nor fresh cancellations from China; open interest fell 4400 led by July off 6,000 amid light volume; C-O-T report: leaned neutral/negative; July beans were at these prices in early April and the start of grief for those of us bearish. Next major downside number the May 7th low of 14.46-1/4; close over $14.85 needed to ‘right’ the market.
Wheat:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Choppy session overnight and currently as the market is oversold but rallies still sold either from old longs or new shorts; U.S. weather improvement helped Paris wheat to a 6-week low; dryness in the FSU not a big deal yet; Ukraine says grain stocks up 12% on year; open interest rose 2,000 led by Sept. amid light volume; C-O-T report: leaned negative. July wheat nearing important support at the ‘double low’ of $6.63-1/4 from April 11th, under it a two-month low. Except for the beans, markets are oversold but need a trigger to cause an upside correction. Maybe both chart point lows, if holds, could cause one.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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