Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 5/15/14
MORNING GRAINS 5/15/14

May 15th NOPA crush;

Corn:
Exports: Sold Mexico 104,400t old crop.
Comments: Weekly export sales old crop up sharply from bottom-dragging levels a week ago at 343,800t. The export bloom is off the rose. Deliveries 6 (mini-corn 5 tendered by CBOT house); Informa acreage today?; Deere & Comp. reportedly sees 2014/2015 corn prices at $4.35 vs. $4.25bu. prev. (hmmm, why bother?); open interest rose 9,400 led by Dec. and March contracts amid moderate volume (new crop hedging also picking up). July corn new swing lows yesterday and a close under April low of $4.90-3/4 could cement the downside. Both exports and funds against the bulls right now. But eventually we’ll have a drought, eh?

SOYBEANS:
Exports: Sold China 120,000t new crop.
Comments: OK…Indonesia, Mexico and Japan all could not get a better deal elsewhere as weekly export sales rise 80% to…..73,600t. No wonder July beans based then rallied as May was expiring. Who’s the first to say ‘not rationing’ enough! I’m bearish in this area and a new high close a likely expensive bear defense area; meal sales up 13% to a measly 84,580t; soyoil a nothing at 1800 (even so, down 7%!). NOPA Crush est. avg. 130.5mln.bu. vs. 153.8mln. month; Noble Group in Brazil says profits hurt by ‘taking a hit’ on China’s ‘historically low’ crush margins but did also say its Ukraine crush operations ‘normal'; Deere & Comp. reportedly sees 2014-2015 prices $10.25 vs. $10.50 previously (I guess I’m smokin’ what they’re smokin’); open interest rose 5,200 led by Q/X contracts up a combined 5200, amid moderate volume (some funds selling corn and wheat short and buying beans longs?). Deliveries: beans 44, meal 67, soyoil 89;

Wheat:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: OK, this is time now to combine crop years but still, not good Kymosabe: old crop dn. 83% to 54,900t and new crop 197,100t and even as he die hard bulls add them together it’s still only 252,000t (in old crop, Unknown did cancel 154,300t which I might assume was bought ‘just in case’ the Ukraine situation took a turn for the worse?); Del. 64; some dryness southern Russia and Kazakhstan; India sees its monsoon a it late at June 5th and some concern rains could be down on El Nino there (good thing they have a glut of storage wheat); France lowers its soft wheat stocks by 200,000t to 3.1mln….why? more exports. Open interest rose 1780 even as July falls 3600 amid good volume. New swing lows here, need a close over $7.00 just to stabilize the decline I believe.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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