MORNING GRAINS 5/08/13
Exports: Japan in 320,000t feed wheat/barley; So.Korea buys 69,000t corn South America.
Comments: New crop corn most of the overnight pressure apparently under longer term weather forecasts; open interest little changed even as May/July falls 7300, volume light side. That’s all I got for news. However, not unusual ahead of a major USDA report. Where they can, I keep hearing reports of ‘round the clock’ plantings and that with the psychology of still-tight old crop keeping bull spreading active. Charts still look near term toppy with July needing a close under $6.25 to confirm/extend the decline.
Exports: Sold China 115,000t new crop.
Comments: Tight old crop/improved weather helping the bull (old/new crop) spreads alive; Brazil reports most shipping cleared; India’s soy industry official says plantings might increase 8-10% on higher prices (summer sowing start in June with the monsoon); Asian CPO report sees higher demand from China/India into summer (holiday), Oil World says palm oil could see record exports (high stocks/low prices); China demand concerns? 1st time I remember Asian traders concerned over China demand: April imports 3.98mln.m/t’s off 18.4% on year, to date off 14.8% (poor crush demand a factor); conversely China futures end a touch higher on improved economic data as China swings back to a trade surplus (up 3.7% on mostly industrial items); open interest little changed in total, of note July off 1483 and Nov. up 1500…..as before hardly the stuff bull technical dreams are made of. Nonetheless ‘uncertain plantings’ still and May beans still squeezed enough to hold it together; last week’s chart ‘reversal’ still in play, July in a now 6-day volatile trading range.
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Frost, freezes; rains, no rains, etc. keeps the news back and forth but really, wheat a function still of the overall direction of corn near term, longer term I still see export demand the bearish ingredient; open interest rose 1800, some rolling evident July into Dec., volume light-side. No opinion change on shorts.