Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 5/02/13
MORNING GRAINS 5/02/13

MORNING GRAINS 5/02/13

Corn:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Weekly export sales rose 5% to 329,300t; new crop sales 656,000t led by China (300,000t) and Unknown (295,000t); 10-15 weather forecasts wavering either side of wet/cool and dry/milder; open interest fell 10,400 led by Both May (off 5327) and July (off 6773) amid relatively light volume…..again, funds are not jumping on any bandwagon here; As May nears $7.00 again expect cash movement to pick up (not quite all out of corn in this country just yet). Weather markets are a tough trade sometimes but this one highlighted mostly just shortcovering and limp volume. I felt strongly corn would not fill its chart gap with the July’s at $6.76 but even though the plantings creating that window to fill it, I would not buy rallies up here (be alert for rec on July calls as mentioned).

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Weekly export sales a minus (-) 109,000t led by China and Unknown cancelling 333,100t; new crop sales 1.15mln.m/t’s led by, whom else? China and Unknown; meal sales fell 52% to 99,300t; soyoil sales a nothing 1,100t; China futures return from their holiday partying to track CBOT higher; Malaysian palm oil lower on rising soy/palm production and global economies; open interest fell 1,900 led by K/N off 8,100 while November picked up 4,340, volume moderate; This is not quite a grain weather market per se just yet but even so tough to trade at times. If selling July rallies $13.96-14.00 (45/50 day) expect bear defense over $14.10. May beans doing its job rationing export demand? Currently the rally overnight seen as corrective and has not blanked out weak China economic data (nor their apparent weak feed demand in pork/poultry).

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Weekly export sales up sharply on a week ago to….219,200t, new crop sales 497,300t led by Unknown at 100,800t; crop tour finds uneven yields (more later); Del. 591; U.S. northern plains snow to flood prospects still, south beneficial rains last week and currently but cold moves in; Argentina plantings start in May, conditions called “mostly favorable”; open interest little changed in total, of note May drops 1110 and Dec. gains 1627, volume light side; If not for the corn I’d be more aggressive selling wheat. As it is there’s a sizable bull defense area in the $7.10-7.06 range with the 45/50/20/10 day m/a’s.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

Disclaimer: Trading options and commodities involves risk of loss and my not be for every investor. Past trading results may not be indicative of future performance. Although information and opinions provided herein are compiled from sources believed reliable, the sender, EBOT Trading, or its principals cannot attest as to accuracy or assume any responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have changed.