Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 4/4/14
MORNING GRAINS 4/4/14

Corn:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Anyone else notice there’s been a dearth of overnight export sale announcements lately? Another USDA S/D report comes out next week; China’s cancellations of U.S. corn (GMO issues but I say domestic price management) for the marketing year now totals 1.0mln.m/t’s; Ethanol had 52 deliveries of which ADM issued 32 of them; one of my clients reminded me, as we talked about late plantings, that last year we saw nearly 60% of corn plantings done in ONE WEEK (beans 82%)…..the land of the ever-bullish will ignore that fact perhaps; open interest rose another 15,500 (even as May falls 10,000) amid moderate volume (the ‘battle’ yesterday was basically either side of steady)…..makes that light volume end of session pop curious…nonetheless a battle remains in play and I side with the ‘provocateurs’. But we still need a close under $4.90 to test extending the downside.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Black & White issues? If bullish, the weeping and gnashing of teeth over tight old crop stocks/no additional China cancellations/no invasion of Brazilian ships unloading on our eastern shores. If bearish, a waiting game for old crop expecting more cancellations/expecting the Brazilian invasion and suggesting we are NOT running out of beans. Ok, let’s move on: Exchange says Argentine crop unchanged on their previous estimate of 54.5mlnl.m/t’s (last USDA 54mln.); China ‘normally’ begins plantings this month with no apparent problems but I am sure someone will find a hectare or two under stress to gauge the whole crop; open interest rose 4,200 even as May falls 4600 amid light volume. For now, let’s be casual and suggest a trading range of $15.00 to $14.60 in place. Late rally in both corn and beans seemed a ‘fund goose’.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: It took 5 sessions before weather came back to explain the drought support in the southwest? Open interest rose 2,400 amid light volume. If not weather then an oversold correction? My $7.00 “demand curse” remains in play. Technically there’s a virtual ‘triple low’ at $6.66-6.65.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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