MORNING GRAINS 4/30/13
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Exports: Sold Unknown 120,000t Sorghum.
Comments: Plantings 5% vs. 4% vs. 1% avg., worse for Il., Iowa at 2% and 1% respectively, lowest in 28 years?; del. 0 as expected; central eastern corn belt warmer/drier then rains?; already talk that IF anyone really needs corn if extensive delays, South America shipping troubles will extend pain; Yesterday’s rally a bit of a surprise on how high it went but as mentioned, there was a likely air pocket overhead after previous heavy May contract liquidation. I have no problem with a ‘planting delay rally’, that was the reason for the call options last week. But let’s not get carried away with it: near $7.00 May get some cash sold, hedgers in back at least buy puts near the money. And by the way, before you read that funds were big buyers yesterday it wasn’t in the back months and must have been in the May still: open interest dropped 30,700 led by May off 34,000…get it? Not replaced with new longs or new shorts. Volume was heavy. Point being, as of now the funds are not in sync with some of the bloated upside objectives being tossed around.
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Like the corn, reports of heavy fund buying seems misleading: open interest fell 2170 led by May off 18,900…that has hint of a ‘roll’ and not new longs before deliveries. Nonetheless, May beans not that far from $15.00 which I believe is illogical but still fortunately backed away from selling futures, though July over $14.00 getting back my hedge interest. Deliveries: soyoil 3,291. Cannot help feel this all temporary unless there are major problems down the road for bean plantings.
Exports: Sold So.Korea 48,900t.
Comments: Deliveries 604; winter wheat 33% gd./excel. dn. 2%, lowest since 1996?; spring plantings 2% vs. 37y% avg. and talk is northern plains snow will turn into northern plains floods further delaying plantings; Wheat Quality Tour begins in Ks. today; Ukraine lifts export restrictions; India government to change policy on sales to export firms since another 5.0mln.m/t’s found NO bidders; open interest fell 6,600 led by May off 13,000 amid good volume. May wheat Chicago still multi-week trading range, will maintain a +$7.22 likely bear defense area.