Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 4/24/14
MORNING GRAINS 4/24/14

Corn:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Weekly export sales rose 15% to 618,900t even with cancellations from China (54,000t) and Unknown (215,900t); the grain trade did a good job of dealing with the cancellations NOT listed as the sales numbers included “switched” from China (115,000t) and from Unknown (494,400t) which would have made for a much different atmosphere. Plantings still an underlying feature but I hear of strongly mixed farmer progress in the Midwest. While it is said most U.S. packaged goods have GMO in them, Vermont passes a bill to require labeling of any GMO ingredients. Open interest: I almost asked this question again…..If I told you Tuesday night corn open interest would rise nearly 23,000 contracts during Wed’s trade, would you think prices would ‘only’ be up moderately? Volume good but not heavy. Near term I am keeping the likely bear defense a close over $5.07-1/2 as before to turn neutral (again, near term).
SOYBEANS:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Not all rationed just yet dept.: weekly export sales 800t off 96% to a marketing year low but amid China cancellations of 255,000t (thought they were not going to be allowed to do that?); meal sales bounce off a bottom to 186,300t and soyoil up 5% to a modest 5,700t; StatsCanada canola acreage a bit lower on estimates to 19.8mln., off 100,000a on year (flaxseed area made up for it?); India weather: chance of El Nino 60%, monsoon seen at 95% of normal (take it easy, only 1% off low end), monsoon starts either side of June 1; more China intrigue? I understand a senior grain executive from a company over there is over here to renegotiate previous bean and meal purchases; and still talk of a couple Brazil cargoes steaming to our ports; open interest fell 5500 led by May off 8400 amid moderate volume in another ‘orderly’ session; $14.60-14.56 seems important support.
Wheat:
Exports:
Comments: More rains coming? Maybe not so much now. But there are other things as well such as weekly export sales fell 20% to a marketing year low of 339,100t (and I DO NOT add in new crop sales this early, any where, to make the numbers dance better for the bulls), Unknown cancels 131,700t; StatsCanada all-wheat acreage at 24.9mln. vs. 26.2mln. yr. a tad friendly if we drought-out; India’ government waited and waited for prices to improve and now there’ s new wrinkle perhaps: current harvest suggesting a new record high crop and still with reserves at double the mandated amount, problem is they are having elections that carry over into mid-May so maybe, just maybe, there’s a window for us. Open interest rose 2,300 even as May falls 5,800 amid light/moderate volume. No opinion change.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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