Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 4/22/14
MORNING GRAINS 4/22/14

Corn:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Plantings are late! 6% vs. 14% on average. Oh, we all knew that and besides last few late planting yields beat the trend-line. But a rally was likely overnight as it was. Of note: Iowa 2% vs. 11% and Ill. 5% vs. 22%. A U.S. government funded study concluded corn biofuel releases 7% more greenhouse gasses in early years vs. regular gasoline. Open interest fell 10,000 led by May off 20,500 amid good volume; May corn looks like it should establish a new, lower range at $4.90-4.80 near term.
SOYBEANS:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: No plantings reported! I was going to get all sarcastic here in honor of the land of the ever-bullish but that would be sour grapes, no? NOAA says Midwest to see “normal” temps and precip for May, June and July. That’s no fun. But I am sure another forecaster will bring up an El Nino or El Pinta or El Santa Maria (my big three) to destroy the crops at anytime. Big bank Barclays said it will curtail its commodity market presence due to, paraphrasing, “a federal microscope” (I firmly believe there would have been no 2008 had that been in place in 2006-2007); no fresh China/Brazil intrigue that I can find early here; open interest fell 2800 led by May off 5900 (July up 5,000 with Nov. off 2900 of note), volume fairly light; Yesterday and today’s lows tracking the 10-day at $14.93-3/4, if gets under then the 20-day at $14.75. Upside?

Wheat:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: The rains in the plains fall mainly on the longs as we saw yesterday. But it was such a crack that a recovery, shallow or not, didn’t take much to occur; winter wheat crop ratings 34% gd./excel., unchanged on week and vs. 35% yr.; Russian plantings said continuing to run above year ago levels. That’s about it on any ‘meaningful’ fresh news. Open interest fell 4,100 led by May off 7900 amid moderate/good volume; nearby resistance $6.77-6.82-3/4 (0-20 day); downside likely to $6.60 near term.
Due to being up much earlier than usual, please excuse any ramblings alluded to above.
I will update any fresh news (like 8:00 export news).

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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