Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 4/17/14
MORNING GRAINS 4/17/14

GOOD FRIDAY OBSERVANCE TOMORROW………………

Corn:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Weekly export sales fell 9% to 601,900t that included Unknown cancelling 268,400t and China cancelling 103,000t BUT there was a total of 188,800t in sales switched from Unknown and 161,900t from China! That’s a lot of cooperation among the world’s commercials and why China’s/Unknown’s cancellations not as big a deal as they could have been. Corn plantings I hear are running ahead in some areas and next week’s weather looks good as well. However, it’s an early “weather market weekend”tm and could preclude much selling. Open interest fell 4,000 amid good volume. Keep pricing Dec. over $5.00 area in options for now; speculatively neutral and treating as a trading affair.
SOYBEANS:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Weekly export sales fell 76% to 19,200t but says the market has completely failed to rein in demand! This week might do it however. Of interest: sales included 74,200t ‘switched’ and China cancelled 54,700t with Unknown cancelling 68.200t. I do not really care for new crop sales and neither should you this early but someone will combined the two and make it look better than it is. After the talk of big meal sales, weekly export sales fell 80% to just 36,600t, includes Unknown cancelling 86,000t but soyoil sales rose 63%!!! to………5,500t…last week was might low also. Open interest rose 2,000 even as May falls 11,000 amid moderate volume. Many sources suggests a couple different types of highs could be forming but will probe the short side in the options. Even in the face of ‘rationing’!

Wheat:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Weekly export sales rose sharply from the low levels of last week to 438,000t and overall, not bad. Problem is making up for 3 weeks of weak export sales; best buyer Brazil at 85,000t, scattered lower elsewhere. Ukraine/Weather weekend could prevent much more losses. Open interest little changed in total but volume was very good.
By the way, Ukraine’s Ag Minister says April-June grain shipments will be at 5743mln.m/t’s that includes 1.53mln. wheat and 3.824mln. corn. Ok, bulls cannot use that, so let’s use their planting potential problems then.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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