Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 4/14/14
MORNING GRAINS 4/14/14

Corn:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: It was a nice spring/summer but now the snow must fall here in northern Illinois. Too late to plant until…..later week perhaps. But the delays are there: USDA kicks off planting progress today and some estimates run 3-5% vs. 7% avg. Ukraine seems to be helping the bull psychology overnight as the Commies seemingly ‘dare’ Ukraine’s troops to stop the radicals taking offices in the eastern area. Goldman Sachs says it’s bearish grains “despite” Ukraine tensions (thought I was in minority, not sure I want their help); open interest rose 2,000 while big rolling happened between the May and July amid good volume; C-O-T report: leaned very neutral which is very strange but might explain the sideways action. Close over $5.07-1/2 takes me neutral.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Another tid-bit out of China: defaults could equal 2.0mln.m/t’s due to no money from banks there; Goldman Sachs says El Nino “good” for beans (even though doubts it will be a problem for corn or wheat) and sees $10.50 on a 12-month basis (not sure what that is). Normally I’d be bear-touting the above but I gave up fundamentals for Lent! NOPA March crush tomorrow, est. avg. at 146mln.bu.; open interest rose 4,600 in Friday’s “orderly” decline but amid very light volume; C-O-T report: leaned a bit negative. As before, strong support exists $14.60-14.56 and need a close under to project a larger move. Might be a distribution top forming but it’s early.

Wheat:

Exports: Egypt buys 120,000t Romania, 55,000t Russian and 55,000t Ukraine.

Comments: Oops….Egypt buys Ukraine? Maybe just buying before the other shoe drops? Goldman Sachs non-plussed by an El Nino nor a Russian invasion: sees $5.75 12-month basis avg. and a $6.10 3-month; our overnight trade likely a combination of Ukraine/Russia and U.S. weather over the weekend and currently? Open interest little changed in total, large rolling noted, amid good volume. I am using a close over $6.88 as a near term bear defense but have not given up the $7.00 ‘curse’ fundamentally (on exports). Just trying to control spec. risk.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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