Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 4/1/14
MORNING GRAINS 4/1/14

Corn:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: While some ponder why not all available acres will be used wherever, near term beans/corn are trading near term demand. Now for corn, the Q stocks number implied higher feed use and export demand has been very good. Hence, trade talk will likely be that the April S/D report will show a decline in old crop carryover. For new crop corn, a certain wet & cool forecast likely supportive. Technically May corn broke out of it broad trading range and likely to focus on the $5.10-5.15 then $5.25 areas; nearby support should be strong at $4.95-4.90. Open interest rose only 2,400 in total, with May falling 17,600 amid heavy volume.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: My April’s Fool’s Day was yesterday….

Old crop soybeans had not apparently properly rationed demand as long as 1)no more China cancellations and 2) those Brazilian bean imports apparently not expected until April-July period, if then I guess. As in the corn, the trade talk likely a decline in the April S/D carryover; for the new crop, one would think serious corn planting delays would see switching to more beans but that might be just another reason to bull spread the old/new crops. Open interest rose 6,800 split between the K/U/X amid good volume. Upside now to $15.00? “meaningful” support seems $14.50-14.40 for now (hey, it’s beans).

Wheat:

Exports: Iraq in 50,000t?

Comments: Seems wheat the step child of the CBOT fund bulls as it lags due to a negative report yesterday. Will that really get in the way? Or perhaps a way to spread risk via spreading? Crop conditions fell in Ks. and held steady in Tx./OK.; open interest rose 4,300 led by K/U amid strong volume. $7.00 has been my ‘pivot’ and remains so, important support seen at $6.80-6.70, resistance $7.10-7.20.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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