Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 3/7/14
MORNING GRAINS 3/7/14

Corn:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Ukraine/Russian situation takes on another dangerous tilt after talks with the U.S. and Putin; some talk “no one wants to be short ahead of the weekend” (just in case!); never too early: NOAA says on an “El Nino watch” (coming in summer) and opinions divided with one saying will be good overall and another saying Oh MY!, just like 1997-1998 drought (tripod of flood it/bake it/ then freeze it starting?); USDA Monday seen basically as neutral; new highs at $5.09-1/2 May; open interest rose 13,000 amid moderate/good volume. For now, needs a close back under $4.79 to possibly break momentum. As before, I might argue with ethanol and/or feed demand issues but cannot with the exports…seems importers are as spooked by the Black SEa deal as traders are.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Same reasons as in the corn for much of tis perhaps: Ukraine/Russia and El Nino (maybe) but PLUS the export demand. China cancellations are being met with ‘other’ buyers basis the weekly export sales report as mentioned. New contract highs takes out the ‘reversal’ with authority; for now need a close under $13.11 to break momentum. Open interest rose 4,800 amid light volume (shorts are still buried). USDA report seen as lowering carryover due to higher exports (142mln.bu. vs. 150mln.bu. prev.) but I wonder if the crush will decline to offset it?

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: E.U. futures sharply higher over the Ukraine/Russian deal; don’t tell anyone but the Ukraine Ag Minister said Feb. grain exports were record large; del. 30; open interest little changed in total amid moderate/light volume. Tough to fight air.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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