Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 3/28/14
MORNING GRAINS 3/28/14

Corn:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Weekly export sales the best reason I see as why prices have been holding tough, though admittedly fund buying stretches the point: to wit, open interest rose 10,000 amid moderate volume yesterday. The USDA report needs a bearish tint, i.e. quarterly stocks higher than expected, to likely dissuade importers from being so aggressive. The acreage number seems more the ‘wild card’ to me as I expect it to be in the average estimates….hence weather takes over down the road. I understand the head of the EPA defends (paraphrasing) proposal to cut biofuel levels required by law into the U.S. fuel supply in 2014 as “cannot be absorbed”.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Weekly export sales old crop were slim but several times before they were slim and recovered the following week so that’s why prices were so non-plussed yesterday. Plus the trade looks for a significant decrease in the quarterly stocks come Monday, though I am not ‘betting’ on it. Plantings might get a surprise though. Overseas financial markets got buzzed on rumors China will look to stimulate its economy. Open interest little changed amid very light volume.

Be very careful getting too bulled up for the report: there’s possible import surprises and/or that residual catch-all category to possibly buffer higher exports.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Weekly export sales were hopeful considering the rally but still shows there is heavy competition from other countries; wheat being a legendarily thin market for now will wrench back and forth on any new weather forecasts; I doubt any meaningful changes on Monday’s report; open interest rose 2,755 amid moderate volume.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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