Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 3/17/14
MORNING GRAINS 3/17/14

Corn:

Exports: Sold Mexico 107,400t old crop.

Comments: March 31st more fun coming on the Quarterly stocks and Planting Intentions reports: Stock markets rally (‘buy rumor/sell fact’?) as Crimea vote goes 96.77% for Russia (pikers, North Korean president got 100% of votes); ethanol prices rally on rail shipment disruptions, ‘snarls’ as it’s called, and lowers stocks; 1st time in awhile we saw overnight export demand but a modest amount; open interest fell 1,500 led b y K/N off 6900, volume relatively light; C-O-T report: still leans bearish (I will note funds have rolled some 50,000 contracts, over half shortcovering the rest new longs) . Some plantings reported in LA and AK. But the public and funds might opt for planting delays due to excessive moisture of course. Too early for me.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: Sold Unknown 119,000t Soymeal new crop.

Comments: Deliveries 225 all street; Asian CPO lower as Malaysian palm oil exports fall 21%; NOPA crush estimate about 141mln.bu. (at 11:00); 2-3 CARGOES SAID DIVERTED FROM BRAZIL TO THE EASTERN U.S. PORTS??????……however I doubt this is a major surprise to those that watch such things; China economic slowdown still a negative psychological factor as China looks to reduce reserves of beans and corn; China futures mostly strongly lower; open interest fell 7,600 led by May amid light volume; C-O-T report: need to call it neutral.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Ukraine/Russian deal? Possible ‘invasion’ of more Ukraine territory seems at least psychologically supportive to a degree; Ukraine Ag Min says grain exports to March 14th up 37.5%; U.S. SRW areas ‘good’, HRW to see ‘limited rains’ next 7 days; open interest fell 1800 amid good volume; C-O-T report: leaned bearish. And finally, I am taking over the what I call “the obvious analysis”: IF dry conditions increase in southern Russia, in Ukraine, in Germany/Poland, in western U.S. a problem. If not, no problem. As one major bank announced over the weekend.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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