Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 3/13/14
MORNING GRAINS 3/13/14

Corn: *****MARCH CONTRACTS EXPIRE NOON*****

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: On my notes, there has not been an ‘overnight’ export sale reported since March 3rd; all the talk of PEDv and empty barns must mean something to feed grains; March pressured by a pick up in deliveries to 234 with Term issuing 232 of it, all street stopped; Headline report: China to stockpile 60mln.m/t’s of corn (!!!!!!?) in current marketing year says government, and not headlined is China feed…Network reporting there’s already 54.66mln. in reserves; U.S. gulf basis lower on reported ‘cheaper’ South American offerings; Crimea elections over the weekend. Gee, no ‘good’ news? One can always repeat “floods/drought/freeze” coming. I thought that by the close the early rally was fund buying and it failed, good thing if bearish. Open interest said a flurry of May shotcovering: O/I off 4,100 led by May off 9,900 amid moderate volume. Still negative. By the way, March Oats think they are soybeans, eh? Thanks, Canada.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Deliveries 99 all street; Asian CPO lower on rains seen for Malaysia’s dry areas and weaker exports to China, India; Brazil 60% harvested?, rains and t-storms see reducing progress the next 5 days; also, a report that Brazil’s major soybean port has 20% less ships in line for offloading…China anyone?; Argentina’s big port in Rosario has a ship that run aground, could take a few days to “unground” it?; funds back to buy again? open interest rose 8,700 though spread out over several months, volume good. May filled its gap, as long as it closes under it I am satisfied near term.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: OK, should be some support from the coming Crimea vote over the weekend (once you Russian, you ain’t got nothin’), and we hope not spilling over to more of the Ukraine; U.S. southwest drought in some areas still the hot topic; report suggests a cut off of exports from the Ukraine/Russian area will pit U.S. vs. cheaper India supplies (they never got rid of their bulging surpluses) as well as others; Ukraine Ag Minister says plantings at 11% completed and started on time though on lower area so far (dn. about 260,00acres) than last year due to the uncertainty apparently and a ‘slow go’ so to speak; May wheat faltered in my resistance area yesterday and what’s interesting to me is that an old pivot point seems still in effect: $7.00 not competitive.

Nearby meaningful support $6,62-1/2 (200-day).

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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