Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 2/27/14
MORNING GRAINS 2/27/14

Corn:

Exports: Sold Mexico 284,480t old crop.

Comments: 1st Notice Day Friday so get spec longs out of the March contracts today!;

Weekly export sales rose 22% to 840,800t led by Japan at 178,900t; China cancelled ‘only’ 3,000t but switches from Unknown to Japan and others were 233,000t; cotton sales a marketing year low; open interest fell 14,000 led by March off 36,700 amid heavy volume. Did bean cause a ‘false’ new swing high in corn at $4.59? Seems so but the uptrend is intact so I’ll let it sit for awhile. Any deliveries? Monday or Tuesday might be more indicative than after the close today.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: Sold China 112,000t OPT/ORG. for 2013-2014.

Comments: Weekly export sales rose to 327,700t with China 287,800t (and with 234,000t of it switched from Unknown) AND Unknown cancels 451,000t (guess who!); new crop a modest 315,700t; meal sales fell 48% to 115,900t and soyoil off 86% to a nothing 1,600t. Cannot argue with shipments, up 34% to 1.8mln.m/t’s and 1.0mln. to China. Brazil has BOTH rain and drought problems at the same time apparently; open interest fell 11,100 led by March off 21,000 and a text book squeeze; new contract highs overnight, no logical upside objective for me and my bull defense well under current prices; current uptrend remains overbought but intact still. Wonder if there will be any deliveries? Shouldn’t be I guess. What’s China up to? Haven’t seen them buy optional origin for quite awhile but: bulls will say we are running out of beans here and commercials demanded to be able to source them out of South America; bears say they are playing us like a fiddle. BUT it is a crack in the bulls old crop armor.

Wheat:

Exports: Egypt in Unspecified Amounts.

Comments: Well, prices here not led by the bean-collar? Weekly export sales fell another 14% to 365,100t; Argentina OK’s another 500,000t for export; open interest fell 9,600 led by March off 8900 (July off 1,110) amid good volume, and the upside t/l violated. Bull side: cold to delay spring wheat plantings? Not sure the bulls can milk that this early. I’ll wait to next week but seems a return to the short side might be in order.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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