Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 2/24/14
MORNING GRAINS 2/24/14

Corn:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: While some reports suggests soybean weather for plantings and less than expected So.Amer. harvest, corn early here seems under no such delusion…but the day is young. Same So.Amer. forecast as mentioned in beans. Open interest fell 15,800 led by March off 34,100 amid heavy volume…couple days of high volume and a ‘double high’ at $4.56-1/2 telling us something? C-O-T report: more change of ownership.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: OK. March beans take out September highs due to the California’s drought….um, no due to making 3-month highs on Brazilian crop concerns (sugar prices)….um, no due to Argentinian farmer holding resulting in January grain exports down 58%….um, no as the government will ‘force’ sales to get needed currency. Then there’s the South American weather for beans: Brazil ‘beneficial rains’ next 5-days, possibly some harvest delays in Motto Grosso due to rains; Argentina’s crop considered ‘favorable’. What we are missing then is actual harvest results will be far more worse than most forecasters believe! Has to be. Nonetheless, the rally is perfectly Ok on the charts while the fundamentalist in me is not OK but fortunately stopped fighting it many potential margin calls ago (‘cept hedgers, natch, but cash sales have been OK).

Open interest rose 1100 even as March falls 18,700 amid strong volume; C-O-T report: as mentioned commercials have more money to play it but another week of significant change of ownership to the funds. Oh, and beans rally on spring planting concerns. $14.00 anyone? If probing the short side, do it in options for now. Hated to ‘miss’ a move but this apparent old crop squeeze left me blindsided.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Curiously March wheat also posted a ‘double high’ as did corn but here at $6.20-3/4.

E.U. futures quiet, some concern over Ukraine’s trouble but Black Sea supplies said ‘ample'; U.S. SRW forecasts sees no damage with incoming cold; HRW west Texas overly dry we know, rest said mostly OK; Europe’s flooding mostly effects an area of England; open interest fell 2,650 led by March and July off 7600 amid good volume; C-O-T report: leaned bearish. Like the corn, we are looking for an answer about a bull warning of a double high and strong volume with them.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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