Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 2/20/14
MORNING GRAINS 2/20/14

Corn:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: USDA says: plantings at 92mln.acres (est.’s 92-93) and average price $3.90 (vs. yr.$4.50), however the S/D part of the Annual Outlook Conference for 2014 will be tomorrow. Open interest rose 7,800 even as March falls 38,800 amid near or record high volume? My ‘spidey sense’ is alert for a possible reversal coming but since speculatively prices have turned me neutral I have the time to reassess the situation.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: USDA says: plantings at 79.5mln. (est.’s one wire service 80-81mln.) with average price $9.65 (vs. $ 12.70yr.). Old crop squeeze vs. new crop reality in both South America and the U.S.). However, if there is a drought all bets are off…….of course they are and as mentioned anything can happen with weather but seems a bit early to run with a serious problem where non now exists; export sales tomorrow; March soybeans and soymeal chart reversals? Just asking.; China PMI lower than expected, implies slowing economy; hey, NO China cancellation announcement this morning; speculatively treating as a trading affair but urge using some long put options; open interest rose 4,400 even as March falls 11,300 amid strong volume. On the charts: close under $13.35-1/2 likely a significant stop area.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Paris wheat futures sideways, just for reference on Europe; USDA report: plantings at 55.5mln. (est.55-55.7mln.) and average price $5.13 (vs. $6.80 yr.); Ukraine report says major city grain offices closed but ports open…you decide; open interest fell another 6,500 led by March off 22,000 amid heavy volume. AS in corn and wheat, I am free to pick and choose my next battle. I find it hard to get bulled up on anyone of them and that’s why at this time no reversal in my positioning to bullish, just to neutral.

And by the way, I did not opine a “knee-jerk” reaction to the USDA reports. I’ll wait for the S/D part tomorrow so I am not the latter half of that phrase.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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