Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 2/18/14
MORNING GRAINS 2/18/14

Corn:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: OK here we are: Argentine corn areas ‘favorable’ for filling; USDA Friday to posts estimates for 2014 crop production based off the BaseLine projections (hence expected large); open interest rose 10,800 even as March falls 21,500 amid strong volume; C-O-T report: once more leaned bearishly; move/close over $4.53 remains likely bear defense; near term support $4.43 (10-day).

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Well, Brazil’s AgRural reduced its crop estimate to 87mln.m/t’s down 1.8mln. due to dry areas (and Matto Grasso 37% harvested) and Argentina’s rains, while generally beneficial, are causing a concern over caterpillar infestation. Guess we should buy everything on this?China futures lower beans/meal and higher palm/soyoil; Asian CPO to 17-month highs on Southeast Asian weather; NOPA crush estimate 162.0mln.bu.; USDA production estimate Friday expected to be large; open interest fell 2,850 led by March off 20,800 amid good volume; C-O-T REPORT: leaned decidedly bearish. Again. Yes, I know but that’s not beating a dead horse; it’s just that commercials have a lot more staying power than we do. On the charts: next upside for March $13.60-13.70, bull warning flag a move/close under $13.30-1/2; March meal nearly looks to be forming a ‘distribution top’ but needs to confirm. And no C-O-T major tilt either.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: One wave lifts all ships? March wheat in a 9-day uptrend but on weather or apparent U.S. export demand/ No matter yet. Not much news around. Open interest fell 3500 led by March at down 9,800 amid decent volume; C-O-T report: leaned bearishly. Likely bear defense remains a move/close (already done) over $6.00, next upside then would be Jan. high of $6.12-1/2.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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