Comments: I regret not being as bulled-up as some over the USDA report as mentioned in my report breakdown. One correction of sorts: the touts are using old crop beans and corn prices as the reason for the ‘buy acres’ deal but the Nov. beans/Dec. corn perfectly in line I believe. Otherwise, I’ll stay with my conclusion. No fresh news around.
Exports: Sold China 116,000t new crop.
Comments: As mentioned, the only bull tout is and has been tight old crop supplies. The report was negative and for a few minutes yesterday there seemed to be some fund-defense of that. But not without a battle: open interest rose another 8,000 amid strong volume (even as March fell 11,000). My take on the C-O-T report then holds: major change of ownership. Nonetheless, part of the sell off this morning apparently on talk of China cancelling/switching up to 10 cargoes of beans…. which makes sense. South America will be loaded with them. Back to selling good rallies here (or buying near the money puts), the next major battle I see will be at the ‘confluence of major averages’ at $13.04-3/4-13.00. Likely bear defense a close over $13.40 range high.
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: It’s possible wheat has bottomed. The reverse is also true. In here I give it a big grain of salt but I also believe until we see export demand AT THE HIGHER PRICES remains good, I cannot get too bullish yet. Hence the short probe idea to the $6.00 area ($5.92-3/4-5.99-3/4 major m/a’s) as before. For now, treating as a trading affair. Past history has been for no SUSTAINABLE rallies. Need to prove that. Open interest rose 5,900 amid high volume even as March falls 11,000.