Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 1/31/14
MORNING GRAINS 1/31/14

Corn:

Exports: Sold Spain 110,000t old crop.

Comments: I thought March was the “cruelest month”? Updated forecasts here call for up to 9″ of snow now. And bitter cold again next week. OK, that whining out of the way: threat of big snows apparently goosed up corn demand for ethanol plants adding the cash strength; Brazil’s RGDS and Parana corn to see “stress” next 5 days on no rains; reportedly, civil unrest in Ukraine steering some corn export demand to the U.S. (Spain?); open interest little changed in total as March falls 7600 and largely picked up by the K/N contracts, volume was surprisingly good and indicates a ‘mini-battle’ afoot at important technical points ($4.35-4.40 in general, mine a close over $4.35-1/2 near term). Tyson says China has an oversupply of chicken as bird flu hits demand.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Cargill reportedly will idle a plant in NC in spring due to a lack of meal demand from South American supplies; Brazil weather set to ‘stress’ beans in RGDS and Parana; Argentina weather favorable, both for the next 5 days; China economic growth seen higher but at the slowest pace in 24 years; China’s vacation until Feb. 5th; open interest rose 3,600 amid strong volume; March beans stalled at their relatively minor m/a’s (10/20 day) at $12.83-12.85 yesterday and I’ll hold to my likely bear defense a move/close over $13.02.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Egypt’s hissy fit over 13.0% moisture new requirement vs. France’s 13.5% has France yelling “sacre’ blue”! (sic), says could lose out on lucrative Egypt market and hopes it doesn’t spread to other area buyers. By the way, red one reason for the Egyptian change: a glut of world wheat. Keep in mind even if we get more export demand from them. Otherwise, read an interesting article about the “February Break” and will include that with my Tyson comments (see meats) later on. Open interest fell 2,000 led by March off 7600 amid good volume. Will lower likely bear defense $5.73 (near term 10-day at $5.61).

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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