Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 1/30/14
MORNING GRAINS 1/30/14

Corn:

Exports: Sold Unknown 127,000t old crop.

Comments: Well, that explains it: weekly export sales up sharply to 1.84mln.m/t’s led by Japan at 797,800t, Spain 270,000t with Egypt and So. Korea 120,000t each; I added 354,000t that were switched from Unknown (China cancellations absorbed?). All-in-all explains recent strength and that is better than the cold-feeding argument as mentioned. However, I am not sure it’s not ‘old news’ so to speak. The ammunition seems there to take out range high at $4.35-1/2 and close over it. We’ll keep our defense point for now however. Open interest fell 4,700t led by March off 9,500 amid moderate/decent volume.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Weekly export sales fell 22% to 494,800t, China bought 257,300t and Netherlands 209,300t of which 200,000t switched from Unknown; Unknown though cancelled 610,300t; meal sales fell 72% to just 68,300t and soyoil a nothing 6,700t (but, shipments a marketing year high ahead of Lunar New Year?). Otherwise, one VERY curious thing was open interest rising 14,400 contracts on yesterday’s action. If one ventures to the sell side on a good rally (yes, I suspect March beans found bottom picking near its low-end range), one might just use the 10-20 day m/a’s at $12.85-12.86-1/2, position-wise the likely bear defense a move/close over $13.02.

No fresh news on South America (yes, I am watching the Argentine farmers reaction to the government’s proposed increase in export taxes).

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: I likened yesterday performance as almost like kicking a dead guy. Yet, overnight action merely seems a technical correction rather than popping on a very decent export sales report. At 794,000t it was up 89% and led by Japans, So. Korea and Nigeria. Also looking into a possibly friendly development: apparently Egypt ‘altering’ its moisture specs and

E.U. futures fell hard reportedly because French wheat could be negatively impacted. Open interest only up 1500 even as March fell 3200 amid fairly heavy volume (local street toughs jumped in?). Well, let’s lower my likely bear defense to $5.75-1/2, warning flag a move/close over $5.68-1/2 and play it from there.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

Disclaimer: Trading options and commodities involves risk of loss and my not be for every investor. Past trading results may not be indicative of future performance. Although information and opinions provided herein are compiled from sources believed reliable, the sender, EBOT Trading, or its principals cannot attest as to accuracy or assume any responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have changed.