Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 1/27/14
MORNING GRAINS 1/27/14

Corn:

Exports: Sold Unknown 183,888t old crop.

Comments: A three day wind chill alert? Oh, baby it’s cold outside! Not sure the market can get too much more of a rally out of the argument of increased feed. What would be better is if export demand would keep increasing like Friday morning’s bulge. In other news: Argentina posts some improvement in weather after recent rains/cooler temps.; EPA’s ruling over the RFS maintains an underlying supportive feature (due to many politico’s telling them to keep hands off); open interest fell 8,000 led by March off 12,700 amid moderate volume; C-O-T report:

leaned neutral to bullish. March move/close over $4.35-1/2 needed to ‘right’ the decline for now. Basing or a correction? Still in a corrective mode objectively.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: Sold Unknown 183,000t new crop.

Comments: Not much around early: Brazil still could use some rains south; Argentina posts improvements; China’s Lunar New Year starts end month; open interest little changed in total even as March drops 3600 and the rest little changed, volume moderate; C-O-T report: Guess not too surprisingly considering the price action as its leaned largely neutral. March beans overhead confluence of m/a’s at $12.89-1/2-13.02-1/2 and my tilt again leans to selling in the $12.90’s, likely defense a move/close over high end of m/a’s in this trading affair.

Wheat:

Exports: Egypt buys 715,000t (595,000t H, 120,000t S).

Comments: Europe, North & South America and Australia opt/org., haven’t seen the breakdown as yet. On my major radio station was a report from a weather forecaster that 20% of the U.S. winter wheat crop is in danger due to the cold (only forecast I read of or heard of that says that); Russian grain exports so far up 31.6% on yr. (old news, really); open interest rose another 4700 led by H/K/N (have to believe bottom picking) amid moderate/light volume; C-O-T report: tough one as regular funds had little change to long/shorts while commercials were almost even on new longs and shorts. Does the rally have legs? IF world export demand keeps up as heavily as it has lately, even when non-U.S., one wave can lift all ships for awhile. Two spots for the March overhead: $5.68-1/2 (10-day) and $5.82-1/2 (20), I am maintaining a move/close over $5.80 as before for now.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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