Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 12/23/13
MORNING GRAINS 12/23/13

Corn:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Noon close tomorrow; ‘bit more rain forecast for Argentina; no new cancellations from China recently (also, see China in bean comments); open interest fell 4,000 led by March off 5,300 amid light volume again; C-OT report: leaned bullishly (hmmm….distribution bottom?).

Otherwise, nuttin’! Close over $4.40 remains our likely bear defense.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: Sold Unknown 120,000t old crop.

Comments: South America: Brazil “‘warm & dry” (it’s summer!)…but bears watching according to the forecaster (you bet bears will be watching); meal demand said still strong; Canada grain and Oilseed stocks updated up sharply in both; open interest fell 8,000 led by Jan. off 18,600 amid moderate volume; C-O-T report: leaned negatively. Now, China: looks like they have a “credit crunch” and raises short term interest rates; stresses on financial system; one bank asks shareholders to write off $95mln. in ‘under-performing’ loans for example: welcome to capitalism! Point being is that many times our bean market reacts to any news that effects the ability to buy our beans. Multi-week trading range cannot last forever…I think. As before my concern lies in a possible distribution-type high forming though January meal not far from NEGATING its ‘reversal’ so not as excitable with a friendly lean. No China cancellations either.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: How slow is it? Slower than the CME lowering certain rates to trade. No overtly significant news around. Open interest little changed in total, some rolling noted (Mch. up 2700 and July dn. 2200…and is also very curious unless index funds); C-O-T report: leaned a bit bullishly. Lowering likely bear defense to a move/close over $6.25.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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