Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 1/22/14
MORNING GRAINS 1/22/14

Corn:

Exports: Sold Japan 105,644t new crop.

Comments: Between corn and the wheat, corn looks like its trying harder to base. Or better said, keep its base. Another round of arctic cold for feed and farmer shipping delays for movement adding support under the market. I was torn between my interpretations of the C-O-T report and recent action justifies it. In other news: Hungary reports 2013 crop 6.7mln.m/t’s up 41% on year (Hungary is a Black Sea partner); open interest rose 8,200 amid moderate volume indicates some ‘value’ buying perhaps. March back to its recent confluence of m/a’s: $4.25-3/4-4.29-1/2 (10/20/45/50m/a’s), I’ll use a lowered likely bear defense +$4.35-1/2 for now.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: The latest on Argentina’s crop: recent hot & dry likely caused some yield losses (but not likely enough to materially effect the overall size of the crop); Celeres says Brazil sold 41.7% of the crop vs. 55.9% yr. due to lower world prices (welcome to U.S. producer’s world); China futures lower beans and sharply lower soymeal (likely reflects us); open interest fell 6,650 led by March off 8500 amid moderate volume. As mentioned, with yesterday’s break I am more comfortable being neutral. The odds of $12.50 and lower look evident but it’s likely too early, the ‘rough’ lows should be put in just before bulk harvest in South America if it occurs. For now look for broad support $12.80-12.60 (hey, it’s beans!) while the confluence of m/a’s sits at $12.93-13.01-1/4 (above which could be used as a likely bear defense).

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Nothing here. March bouncing along bottom Chgo. and also seeing some corn/wheat spreading; Hungary says crop 5.0mln.m/t’s up 25% on yr.; open interest rose 1,800 led by May, volume to light-side. $5.72-1/4 its 10-day, need a close over stabilize the decline at least.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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