Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 12/20/13
MORNING GRAINS 12/20/13

Corn:

Exports: Sold So. Korea 180,000t new crop.

Comments: Have to spend an inordinate amount of time on China: synopsis is—total rejections 545,000t over GMO strain MIR62; talk is inspections were made easier due to their having a big corn crop; 1st 10-months of 2013 bought 1.5mln., and reportedly 3.0mln. bought for summer ship; 94% of imports U.S. but deals with Argentina and Brazil recently (for a newly approved GMO strain) puts us at more risk possibly; then finally, our beloved USDA Secretary apparently left the ag part of the meeting with China officials as an “area of continuing work”. Our corn now knows what its soybean brethren has suffered though for so long: China knows it is the ‘big dog’ and will play the trade game any way they believe is better for them. Especially the cancellations part.

In other news:……..? Open interest rose 1200 amid light volume.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: As mentioned, bull warning flags are evident to me from a possible distribution-like top (the classic ones develop at contract highs) and the still in play Jan. meal reversal. Nonetheless, I’ll keep the move/close below $13.09 as the defense area and change the ’tilt’. Hate to hope for a drought but…..guess there’s some concern over a ‘drying pattern’ developing in South America; China report: another Fed-type infusion to their largest banks brought one article to suggest a possible “credit crunch” ala’ our Lehman fiasco; U.S. export sales slowed with 97% sold as causal effect?; open interest rose 1,800 even as Jan. drops 20,200 while March picks up 18,000 of it amid strong volume (price movement light yesterday because of heavy spread rolling).

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: New contract lows overnight getting repetitive and very, very oversold a bear threat but what will trigger it? Better be demand rather than just technical to sustain it but we need a rally anyway if prices to avoid at least $6.00 and below. To that end: Paris futures reported a commentary that Canada’s abundant supplies could ‘flood’ the market and accelerate price declines; Argentina raise crop by 500,000t to 9.0mln. BUT government has not allowed exports yet; open interest rose another 1,900 amid moderate volume. Will funds take some of their huge short profits before the New Year’s? Big bonus’ seem assured.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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