Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 12/19/13
MORNING GRAINS 12/19/13

Corn:

Exports: Sold So.Korea 130,000t old crop, sold Unknown 111,280t old and 16,256t new crop.

Comments: Weekly export sales rose 19% to 827,100t and respectable, it included Unknown cancelling 238,700t (China?) and China buying 124,000t (replaced at lower price levels?), and there was also confirmation of 60,000t from China switched to So.Korea. I guess corn prices are holding in part due to the focus on it rather than soybeans? (see below). Also, ethanol production rose 10% last week. Here’s a bombshell: NOAA sees “no clear” 1srQ temperature outlook for the midwest. Open interest fell 4,800 led by March off 6,000 amid very light volume. One of the reasons I’ll keep our likely bear defense is that the volume in this price ‘holding’ pattern has been light overall.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Think the commercials knew after the (strange) big break?

Weekly export sales fell to a marketing year low of 415,500t dn. 63% which included China buying 306,400t while Unknown cancels 576,300t; shipments fell 8% but still a heavy 1.569mln.m/t’s with 900,000t to China (ports might be saturated?); surprisingly meal export sales were a marketing year low of 77,100t, might suggests prices cannot live by domestic use alone; soyoil sales bounced basically off nothing. Open interest fell 7,700 led by Jan. off 19,500 (H up11,400, rolling?) amid strong volume. January beans fell to at/near a critical junction at nearly 1 month lows at $13.12-13.09 roughly, a move/close under remains our neutral from friendly tilt. One thing, the bad news may have been largely discounted?

Wheat:

Exports: Egypt buys Russ./Romania; Iraq buys 350,00t Australia.

Comments: Weekly export sales perked up 76% to 656,100t with China cancelling 2,600t of note and shipments falling 33%. Hence a start to pricing our wheat into demand but so much competition would not seem to allow for much more than a ‘corrective’ rally. Open interest rose another 3,700 led by March amid moderate volume. StrategieGrains sees the E.U. crop 2014 up 2% on higher acreage overall; Western Australia reports a record high grain harvest so far and could increase but increase mostly barley and canola apparently.

No opinion change.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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