Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 12/18/13
MORNING GRAINS 12/18/13

Corn:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Hot South America? Not quite yet it seems but hey, take a rally when we can get it. Is March corn basing off $4.18-4.20? Like to see more demand ‘visibly’. Did hear South Korea asks for earlier ship dates for corn they bought; seasonally there’s a rally between Christmas and New Year’s; Vilsack in China Friday…any talk on corn gentlemen?; open interest little changed in total amid very light volume. Probe for a low with defense merely a new low.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: The wires still harp on a ‘hot South America’ but it’s not yet and in fact allows for finishing plantings. BUT, we’ll take it because if my ‘rationing’ idea if reasonable any turn to the worst in South America would be good for a 50-cent rally at least and go from there. But I am not ready to play a weather market just yet. Soymeal amazing making new contract highs and the leader for beans. Soyoil makes new contract lows however, though its spread with palm oil has narrowed. Open interest rose 6,500 even as Jan. drops 9,800 (March up 16,000) amid strong volume. The funds are seemingly making a bullish year-end push here and visions of filling that gap at $13.78-1/2 dance in my head (Christmas, get it?). I tilt friendly still but the risk is volatile. Risk is dependent on your pain threshold.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: New lows as wheat remains the whipping boy of the grain trade. I understand we are still overpriced vs. say E.U. and Russia and as mentioned our prices have to try to ‘buy their way back’ into consumption. Open interest rose another 6,400 led by March up 6,230 amid light-side volume. Funds are making a killing short here and in corn (it will be breathtaking if they get forced out though). No key as to where the lows are, $6.00 still seems the near term downside target until proven otherwise.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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