Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 12/16/13
MORNING GRAINS 12/16/13

Corn:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Pretty quiet early. Overnight lower again on follow through selling with the fear of China cancellations in both corn and now DDG’s (apparently DDG’s because they are made from corn possibly with that ‘banned’ strain), though it seems unlikely for DDG. Then of course there’s the potential of eliminating the corn-ethanol mandate mentioned last week. No wonder prices are just over contract lows. Open interest fell 3,300 led by March off 5700 amid light volume; C-O-T report: leaned negatively; expect light volume to continue generally, ’tis the season’ so to speak but that also means air pockets overhead. Still looking for a move/close over $4.40 March to turn neutral.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: China fears over cancelling DDG’s to compete with soymeal if true lingers as does fear of any bio-fuel changes (small enough to avoid the government radar?). Then of course concern over possible China cancellations of our beans when a big South American crop looks to come to town. Otherwise: Asian CPO’s spread to soyoil narrowing, favoring soyoil; NOPA crush looks healthy on estimates of 162mln.b u. vs. 157.1mln. in October; arctic cold should keep corn/meal demand bid under the market; China’s manufacturing data said disappointing, seen as slowing economic growth there; read a report on candlestick charting and it said there’s a “hammer bottom” formation (there’s been days I was hammered, but not the same thing); open interest fell 1200 led by Jan. off 7,000 amid light-side volume; C-O-T report: leaned bearish; Jan. beans in a 15-day range, its positive bent diminishes under $13.12 and nearby resistance $13.34-13.40. Treating as a trading affair still with a friendly tilt on breaks.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Russian prices rise more on concern over weather new crop weather; Ukraine exports of grain rise 22.3% on year; deliveries—Chgo. 83, KC 44 and even mini’s at 15; open interest little changed in total and individually amid light volume. New contract lows overnight as a combination of factors keeps the hammer on prices…and not a candlestick hammer; C-O-T report: leaned bullishly. For now an obvious target $6.00 and need a close over $6.44 to stabilize the decline.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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