Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 12/05/13
MORNING GRAINS 12/05/13

Corn:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Weekly export sales fell to 593,600t and adding to the market’s early weakness, of note China bought 362,600t while Unknown cancels 158,800t; shipments strong at 1.042mln.m/t’s with 587,900t of it going to China; ethanol production fell last week and ethanol deliveries 6; apparently the EPA will hold meetings on the Renewable Fuels Standard today between 9:00a.m. to 9:00p.m…..should be interesting; USDA S/D next week, trade looks for lowered carryover; open interest fell 3,300 led by Dec./Mch. off 8,400 amid moderate volume. As mentioned yesterday, the charts look redundant from similar bearish patterns in Sept. and Oct. months. China cancellation threats still apparently hanging over the market but just another excuse to dissuade a bottom?

SOYBEANS:

Exports: Sold China 120,000t 2014-2015.

Comments: Weekly Export sales fell to 8056,200t led by Unknown at 298,500t of it (only hint of China cancellations was approx. 66,100t switched from them to Thailand and 75,200t switched to Netherlands from Unknown…maybe them); new crop sales 355,600 (maybe the sales reflect China’s reported ban on new corn, bean imports the rest of year?); meal sales poor at 120,400t and soyoil sales fell to a nothing 1,400t (only 4,600t cancelled so demand might have peaked for the China New Year); soyoil deliveries 684 street; Asian CPO lower on weaker exports and building stocks; open interest rose 1,600 even as Jan. falls 4,100 amid moderate volume. As before, January beans are in a very rough 8-day trading range. I’ve favored buying breaks but not marrying it. There’s an approx. “double low” at $13.11-1/2 very near term but I’d see a move/close under $13.09 as a bull warning flag.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Weekly Export sales fell to a light 229,200t, a marketing year low, and no wonder rallies are not holding in here (no major cancellations, just light buying); Deliveries: Chgo. 649 (Term stops 338 a bit helpful)/ Kc. 13; Australia and South Korea reach a Free Trade Agreement……among other things will be more wheat/feed wheat competition for the U.S. and may open the door for a similar deal with China; open interest little changed in total with March off 1,230 the main feature, volume moderate/light side. Rounded bottom? Just new low close at under $6.52 will tell the tail. And prices nearly there now.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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