Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 12/04/13
MORNING GRAINS 12/04/13

Corn:

Exports: China “rejects” 120,000t U.S.; Sold Mexico 132,600t old crop, 33,150t new crop.

Comments: Rumors true about China cancellations due to their GMO-strain take on inspections. In perspective, they have bought 1.54mln.m/t’s so far this year from the U.S. but it’s the psychology of it all. And bull markets do not make new contract lows except once if a bottom in place and March made another new low; the chart pattern is similar to formations in the month of Sept. and Oct…..both looked like possible bottoming. Open interest fell 3,400 led by Dec. off 4,000 and March off 3,796 so nearby month liquidation evident (K/Z’14 picked up a chunk of it) amid fairly light volume. Need a close over $4.40 March at minimum to look for a better upmove. It also makes for a reasonable bear defense area near term.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: StatsCanada canola crop revised up 4mln. from their Oct. est. to 17.960mln.m/t’s and at high end of trade estimates; China futures quiet beans/meal while soy/palm oil remains under pressure; open interest fell 2,000 led by Jan. off 8,000 (March up 6,500 fo note) amid moderate volume; Jan. has held important support off $13.00 and a likely bull defense a move/close under $12.89 for now but keeping a trading affair posture. And, so far no China cancellations showing up, talk is they might wait until after the first and see what South America is doing. Informa estimates, reportedly of course, Brazil’s crop record high at 88mln. up from their prev. 86.7mln. but in line with the USDA’s 88mln.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Deliveries: Chgo. 607/Kc. 167 (both mainly all street); StatsCanada all-wheat production 37.5mln.m/t’s up 4.5mln. from Oct. and 2-3mln. over trade estimates; no Egypt business that I can see after yesterday’s rumors; Argentina’s AG Min sees crop 8.2mln. vs. 8.5mln. prev., Informa 9.8mln. and last USDA 11mln.; curious weather comment: cold/snow/ice/high winds Thursday….”there may be enough snow cover” to protect.

Paris wheat futures run to a reported 6-month high; open interest fell 2,000 led by March off 2,690 amid fairly light volume. That ’rounded bottom’ on the charts still alive. My daddy said God hates a coward so venture into the long side on breaks at least for trading turns, likely minor but, hey.

A move/close under $6.52 will turn aside. Daddy also said not to give too much blood.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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