Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 1/17/14
MORNING GRAINS 1/17/14

Corn:

Exports: Sold Taiwan 60,000t.

Comments: MLK HOLIDAY MONDAY, markets closed.

Weather weekend (for South America) to support? Brazil Ok but south needs rain; Argentina forecast to see a cool down and rains early next week? Export sales seen at 80% of target; open interest rose 3,300 even as March falls 7500 amid moderate volume; March corn basically tooling around its confluence of m/a’s at $4.29-1/2-4.26-3/4. Wonder if this is one of those times that the ‘key reversal’ concept will be unreliable?

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Export sales now at 102% of USDA estimates…why no ‘rationing’ I ask again. Weather Market Weekend(tm) with South America? Technically, a major battle ground is afoot: in yesterday’s two-sided trade open interest rose 12,500 contracts amid moderate volume. As one might have guessed, I side with the new sellers but with the long weekend coming not prepared for the risk (obvious one a close over $13.20 comes to mind). Brazil weather OK but could use some rain southern areas; Argentina to see a hot & dry weekend (gee, middle of summer in the southern continent, what a concept!) but some see cooler and wetter conditions next week; report says Brazil beans for mid-Feb. at a $.90 discount to the U.S.; China goes on a long vacation January 30th for Lunar New Year though their rascally grain traders likely still around. Now, the question of why NO rationing: the imbedded fear China will cancel a lot, once its idea of the South American crop gels more positively.

Wheat:

Exports: Egypt buys 295,000t opt/org.

Comments: Disappointment as the U.S. share of the sales alluded to above only 60,000t. Again, every time we stick our heads up (prices) we lose business. Need to reduce the ‘glut’ of world supplies. Open interest rose 5,300 amid good volume and that a mini-battle considering the action yesterday. Nothing evident new longs will win yet.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

Disclaimer: Trading options and commodities involves risk of loss and my not be for every investor. Past trading results may not be indicative of future performance. Although information and opinions provided herein are compiled from sources believed reliable, the sender, EBOT Trading, or its principals cannot attest as to accuracy or assume any responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have changed.