Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 1/14/14
MORNING GRAINS 1/14/14

Corn:

Exports:

Comments: OK, OK I am late to the weather party here and in beans: Argentine weather hot & dry and next week now called hot & dry. Additionally, March corn closed above its major m/a’s and the ones I normally trust. Hence, near term neutral and the market has a buy-break speculative tilt until closed back under $$4.26 for trading turns. No, I still believe in what I mentioned concerning the USDA report but will put that aside for now. And I will “respect the reversal” on the charts. For now also. Open interest fell 5,000 amid moderate volume.

Coin toss.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: The new operating system is Argentine weather, that now seems to be a more serious situation potentially, at least psychologically. Hard to quantify but weather always is. Unlike corn to degree, soybeans have relatively tight old crop stocks and with China ‘buying back’ cancelled old crop the game’s afoot!? Perhaps China also making a weather play and will come back to haunt us. I am in a tricky spot technically: my likely bear defense a close over $12.97 as mentioned but the major m/a’s are now at $12.93-3/4-12.99-3/4, ‘tricky’ because if over those prices the rally could extend into a spike. Know one’s pain-threshold. I hate weather markets usually because there’s no way to ‘see-feel-or-touch’ what value is. From a cash marketing standpoint it’s good for the producers and recommending some cash sales scale up. Open interest rose 8,700 amid good volume. Gut says funds buying yesterday and seeing as the rally has been substantial off swing lows, will be alert for commercials “re-selling’ (as per the C-O-T report).

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: “Lost in space” seems an apt title for the wheat. While the corn and beans showing some signs of bull-life, wheat is tiny Tim on a crutch. As for those thinking corn will anchor it, hasn’t worked for awhile. Argentina’s decision to export 1.5mln. wheat was the latest nail.

Downside objective arbitrary.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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