Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 1/13/14
MORNING GRAINS 1/13/14

Corn:

Exports:

Comments: Huge daily ‘key reversal’ Friday and also a reversal for the weekly. The daily reversal meets my criterion including rising open interest (up 13,000) and large volume, in this case seem record large or close to it (645,000 contracts). Not surprisingly I am not yet fundamentally bullish, however I never ignore major technical signals speculatively. As such, the ‘sell rallies’ tilt is now turned neutral while a close over $4.40-3/4 might signal a higher move to grab on. USDA report as mentioned Friday, was to me, more a case of NEW SHORTS being tilted saturated with the action leading up to the report via open interest and the day of the report (new contract lows). The report had a rather modest drop of 64mln.bu. from the previous month and crop still very record high. Hence I need more than the charts to turn say, longer term bullish on the action. Hedgers can add on equity protection. C-O-T report: leaned negatively.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: USDA report was negative, but statistically like here or in corn not a major change. Basics are still rally selling-tilted here and the likely bear defense a close over $12.97 March near term. South American weather OK for Brazil while Argentina back to hot & dry? Deliveries 0, meal 1 and soyoil 254; open interest rose 7400 amid strong volume (mini-battle again); C-O-T report: leaned bullish. Those two numbers suggests a serious move coming. Otherwise, we are in a 8-day range now an as I say: something’s got to give.

Wheat:

Exports: Sold Egypt 55,000t SRW.

Comments: After being clobbered Friday, only 55,000t? No ‘reversals’ here Friday after new contract lows of $5.60-1/2. Aside then from dramatically oversold, tough to get a bullish tint to the market. Open interest rose 2,500 even as March fell 3200 amid heavy (record?) volume. Need a rally over $5.93 just to turn it neutral. C-O-T report: leaned negative.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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