Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 11/21/13
MORNING GRAINS 11/21/13

Corn:

Exports: So.Korea cxl’s 65,000t feed wheat; Japan buys 26,370t feed wheat & 68,870t feed barley, in for 120,000t & 200,000t feed wheat, barley.

Comments: Weekly export sales 945,100t vs. 1.2mln. wk. but still ‘not bad’, of note China bought 321,600t (313,200t switched from unknown), Japan 403,000t even as Unknown cancels 201,400t. Export demand likely to stay good perhaps on reports from Asia that feed wheat is $60.00t over corn, also says that world wheat supplies are largely milling grade and animal house grade ‘tight’; shipments showed 339,700t to China, indicates need; open interest rose 3,500 even as Dec. falls 17,600 (rolling plus) amid good volume. Those ‘mini-reversals’ I spoke of still in play but miles to go before can suggests lows in. Trading affair. And, Ethanol production is up 8% on yr. vs. USDA’s up 5%…helps some but need to see what the (upper) price will be to cool it off.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Weekly export sales rose to a rather large 1.376mln.m/t’s led by our old friend and creditor China at 1.152mln., even as Unknown cancels 465,200t; meal sales pretty light at 116,000t but soyoil rebounded to 95,800t! led by Unknown, India and Peru. Asian CPO rises to 14-month highs on too wet Indonesia; open interest rose 2,400, nothing notable, in light volume.

Remember my reading of yesterday about shipments? Well, this week’s shipments were nearly double the sales at 2.488mln. and China getting 1.916mln. of it. Seems we are getting back in line and a positive. I tilt friendly but still a trading affair for now spec-wise.

Wheat:

Exports: Japan buys 133,400t U.S./Can/Aust.

Comments: Weekly export sales rose strongly on the week to 618,100t, of note Brazil bought 73,800t of it; NOAA says it sees above normal temps. in southwest and southern plains for December (no snow cover?); open interest fgell 1,600 led by Dec. off 11,800 amid good volume. My only spec (and hedge protection) was via the calls and that’s enough for now; spec’s likely bear defense unchanged.

Hog comment correction: western corn belt said “dn. 433″ should be dn. $.33. The paper regrets the error.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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