Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 11/20/13
MORNING GRAINS 11/20/13

Corn:

Exports:So.Korea buys 184,000t (3 cargoes), 2 U.S. and 1 Black Sea.

Comments: In my various readings I now see where another possible bearish report, or reports, upcoming will retard and serious up moves in the price of corn: the Dec. S/D report could increase production and reduce demand (ethanol) and/or that the USDA has a tilt to raise production in the January report. Psychology is everything in our markets. Some good news as U.S. corn is said only $2/ton premium vs. prev. $20/ton premium to Asia at the lowest price in 3 years; open interest fell 4,400 led by Dec. off 31,300 (big rolling) amid strong volume again; I will NOT read much into those positive ‘mini-reversals’ on the charts yesterday though more oversold rallies could be likely. A bear is a bear.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: Vietnam buys 240,000t Argentine soymeal.

Comments: Vietnam’s purchase was made for 8 months in advance (April/July) and unusual but said just in case South America’s crop falters (also not from India as they are selling to Iran apparently); already there’s talk around that while export sales are record large, export shipments are not……suggesting if South America’s crop ample there will be U.S. cancellations. I guess but might be a stretch but we’ll watch shipments reports closer; except for soymeal, China’s futures lower; open interest fell 4,400 led by Jan. off 8,100 amid moderate volume. Best I can give it: a trading affair for now. Maintain all hedges.

Wheat:

Exports: Sold Egypt 110,000t SWR!

Comments: Well, thanks Egypt but that’s likely because of our price decline and in the recent past we’ve seen any significant rally shuts off the demand; yesterday’s rally seemed to have covered the Egypt deal along with open Interest off 4,400 led by Dec. down 29,100 (March up 14,000) amid large volume. I’ll maintain the move/close over $6.60 likely bear defense for now. Oh, and Russia’s grain harvest at 94.3% complete showed 94.3mln.m/t’s vs. 74.4mln. yr. and not new.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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