Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 11/18/13
MORNING GRAINS 11/18/13

Corn:

Exports: Sold So.Korea 136,000t, another group buys 113,000t Black Sea.

Comments: The 136,000t alluded to above was from their largest feed mill and follows their cancelled tender from last week; report sees South Korea’s April coverage 50% complete; Dec. options expire Friday; open interest fell (only!) 3600 even as Dec. falls 27,400 amid big volume; C-O-T report: leaned strongly bearish (commercials knew better on the EPA’s ethanol ruling?); next time I see a “leaked” memo of such importance I’ll have a better head’s up with it. Thought politics would prevent it or temper it but as it is about as the trade then expected. My spec likely bull defense was a new low (under $4.15-1/4) in the December not hit, but March did make a new low overnight. No sense changing it now. Asian report: U.S. corn still competitive with feed wheat.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: So.Korea buys 10,000t non-GMO from China.

Comments: Bio-fuels on the EPA’s lowered mandate behind the sharp break last week and the

C-O-T report same as corn: leaned strongly bearish with commercials vs. funds. As it was, my likely bear defense was taken out and I turn neutral (not bearish); open interest fell 5,000 led by Jan. off 8100 (shortcovering on the way down) amid only moderate volume. In other news: Brazil rains provided good coverage, plantings said 70-75% complete, Argentina largely OK; new China reforms said supportive to commodity-linked currencies, their stocks market jumps and Asian markets with it; China futures sharply lower with the U.S.; China’s Egg Futures off to a shaky start reportedly (hey, just like chicken futures here failed, what, 3-4 times? too easy to be manipulated). Technically January no new low ground and remains locked in a broad, volatile trading range as does meal and soyoil.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: India to resume exports:government auctions 340,000t and well taken with prices lowered to $260/ton vs. $300t prev.; Asian report: sees strong global demand especially from China (another report said China’s domestic vs. global prices “never more conducive” for a larger import program); Russian exports rise on year but domestic prices also rise for 6th week in a row….possible problem?; olpen interest fell 1900 led by Dec. off 9,000 (obvious rolling) amid good volume; C-O-T report: leaned decidedly bullish. There’s a reason wheat holding multi-month range lows perhaps and as I mentioned, many time the larger price patterns evolve opposite to the current trend in this coming time frame. Look to buy March (or serial) calls or call spreads; likely bear defense here as close/move over $6.60.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

Disclaimer: Trading options and commodities involves risk of loss and my not be for every investor. Past trading results may not be indicative of future performance. Although information and opinions provided herein are compiled from sources believed reliable, the sender, EBOT Trading, or its principals cannot attest as to accuracy or assume any responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have changed.