Kleist Comments



Exports: Sold So.Korea 136,000t, another group buys 113,000t Black Sea.

Comments: The 136,000t alluded to above was from their largest feed mill and follows their cancelled tender from last week; report sees South Korea’s April coverage 50% complete; Dec. options expire Friday; open interest fell (only!) 3600 even as Dec. falls 27,400 amid big volume; C-O-T report: leaned strongly bearish (commercials knew better on the EPA’s ethanol ruling?); next time I see a “leaked” memo of such importance I’ll have a better head’s up with it. Thought politics would prevent it or temper it but as it is about as the trade then expected. My spec likely bull defense was a new low (under $4.15-1/4) in the December not hit, but March did make a new low overnight. No sense changing it now. Asian report: U.S. corn still competitive with feed wheat.


Exports: So.Korea buys 10,000t non-GMO from China.

Comments: Bio-fuels on the EPA’s lowered mandate behind the sharp break last week and the

C-O-T report same as corn: leaned strongly bearish with commercials vs. funds. As it was, my likely bear defense was taken out and I turn neutral (not bearish); open interest fell 5,000 led by Jan. off 8100 (shortcovering on the way down) amid only moderate volume. In other news: Brazil rains provided good coverage, plantings said 70-75% complete, Argentina largely OK; new China reforms said supportive to commodity-linked currencies, their stocks market jumps and Asian markets with it; China futures sharply lower with the U.S.; China’s Egg Futures off to a shaky start reportedly (hey, just like chicken futures here failed, what, 3-4 times? too easy to be manipulated). Technically January no new low ground and remains locked in a broad, volatile trading range as does meal and soyoil.


Exports: None Visible.

Comments: India to resume exports:government auctions 340,000t and well taken with prices lowered to $260/ton vs. $300t prev.; Asian report: sees strong global demand especially from China (another report said China’s domestic vs. global prices “never more conducive” for a larger import program); Russian exports rise on year but domestic prices also rise for 6th week in a row….possible problem?; olpen interest fell 1900 led by Dec. off 9,000 (obvious rolling) amid good volume; C-O-T report: leaned decidedly bullish. There’s a reason wheat holding multi-month range lows perhaps and as I mentioned, many time the larger price patterns evolve opposite to the current trend in this coming time frame. Look to buy March (or serial) calls or call spreads; likely bear defense here as close/move over $6.60.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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