Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 11/15/13
MORNING GRAINS 11/15/13

Corn:

Exports: Japan buys 43,000t feed barley.

Comments: Weekly export sales fell hard from 1.7mln.m/t’s but hey, 1.2mln. ain’t bad; ethanol report showed production up 13% on week, some talk lower corn prices could offset any lowering of the mandate?; China says will continue to stockpile domestic production with prices higher than year ago; Argentine plantings said 42% and under average; major storm coming Sunday to Midwest mostly rain; open interest little changed in total but big rolling as Dec. loses 27,500 in spot month, obvious, liquidation gaining speed; possibly corn can close higher on the week, over $4.26-3/4 for a minor bull victory?

SOYBEANS:

Exports: So.Korea buys 20,000t soymeal opt/org.

Comments: Weekly export sales fell moderately to 848,500t led by China’s 667,100t (unknown cancels 231,000t and U.K. 60,000t); soymeal sales steady at 283,200t and soyoil fell hard from 65,900t to just 7,200t but not too surprising maybe after such large prior week purchases; Argentine plantings seen at avg. at 22% complete; Asian CPO set to challenge 12-month high in its current rally; India ‘mystery’ solved? Apparently a combination of sales and a lower OLD CROP production backgrouned their pre-new crop harvest (soyoil imports up 5% to record large, palm oil up 38%; deliveries 250 and even some mini-beans at 5; more soyoil positive news: Philippine reports 3 mln. coconut trees destroyed in its typhoon; China says will continue stock piling domestic soybeans fro farms at steady on year prices, ends April 30th; NOPA crush estimate 155mln.b u.; open interest rose 5,100 amid light volume…bit of a mini-battle, eh?; January holding support as we see it, a likely bull defense a move/close under $12.88.

Wheat:

Exports: Egypt buys 240,000t French/Romania;Japan buys 120,000t opt/org.

Comments: Well, weekly export sales sagged 40% to 287,800t so demand weakened enough to pressure our prices obviously (to repeat, we have big competition still and we were near $6.60 Dec. last week for point of reference); Russian grain harvest to date +93 mln.m/t’s vvs. 74mln. but again, nothing really new about it; open interest rose—–7,000 led by March up 10,400 amid strong volume and a major battle ground forming over major support ($6.40-6.35). Oversold but needs a trigger to get a ‘sustainable’ rally.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

Disclaimer: Trading options and commodities involves risk of loss and my not be for every investor. Past trading results may not be indicative of future performance. Although information and opinions provided herein are compiled from sources believed reliable, the sender, EBOT Trading, or its principals cannot attest as to accuracy or assume any responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have changed.