Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 11/14/13
MORNING GRAINS 11/14/13

Corn:

Exports: So.Korea cancels tender on 70,000t

Comments: Monday’s government holiday delays weekly export sales until tomorrow; ADM says ‘no sweat’ if ethanol mandate lowered…..still sees big exports overseas; So.Korea’s largest feed buyer cancelled its tender saying prices ‘too high’, 2nd cancellations in a row apparently for the same reasons; IEA sees lower crude oil demand in U.S. and China (re: ethanol influence) but near term sees seasonal rise into year’s end; open interest fell 10,800 led by Dec. off 50,200 amid heavy volume. Recent chart activity resembles a down escalator and tough to fight city hall. However, we need to get the expected EPA ethanol mandate out of the way to see where we sit better.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: India buys 40,000t soyoil.

Comments: Whaz-up with India? Their soybean crop said in good condition and they are aggressively selling oilseed meal. However, there has been bits and pieces of good vegoil news lately including recent run up in palm oil prices; industry analyst sees palm oil demand up 9%; and recent China buying of soyoil. Hence the oil/meal spreads at times. China futures slow for beans, meal but strong rally in soyoil, exchange pres. said China soybean imports to be record high at 66mln.m/t’s vs……….38mln. yr. Huge.; China soybeans crop said in favorable conditions for harvest north and central; So far January beans holding semi-important support at $13.08-1/2-12.99. No opinion change but current upside looks limited. For now.

Wheat:

Exports: Japan buys 129,445t U.S./Can./Aust.

Comments: Wheat gets a corrective bounce after being beaten down and again talk of a bottom. I do remember that in many years at this time frame wheat does a seminal shift of trend into the 1st Q of the next year. We’ll see. 1st, let’s see a close over $6.59-1/2 and take it from there. Ukraine seeing stocks and exports well over yr. ago (old news); India running field trials for GMO wheat; open interest rose (only) 2,500 as Dec. falls 15,300 amid strong volume (not yet net liquidation); watch major support at the $6.40-6.35 on further declines which might be a bull-signal eventually.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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