Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 11/1/13
MORNING GRAINS 11/1/13

Corn:

Exports: So.Korea buys 55,000t feed wheat opt/org.; and buys 60,000t E.U.(!).

Comments: So.Korea now at +773 ,000t corn/wheat/oilmeal bought since Tuesday; Nov. 8th USDA S/D report….Informa est’s and another seen out later today; next rains seen next Tuesday; Argentina reports pantings need rains but getting some currently; China reports drier and OK temps for harvesting; IGC raised both corn and wheat global production; yesterday’s export sales were good as mentioned but alas, also “old news”; as before the market seems to be saying that while production will jump considerably, demand not jumping enough to offset it…hence the continued downtrend; open interest rose 4,700 even as Dec. fell 16,000 amid very strong volume; coming weekend might slow rate of decline, overall no new positions to chew on once Dec. fell under $4.38 as mentioned; still suspect that ‘leaked’ EPA ethanol mandate cloud hangs over the market but will resist using that as a crutch; and that new export demand realities I harped on all summer was reminded again with the E.U. sale to one of our largest clients.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: Sold China 115,000t soybeans; Sold Unknown 33,000t soyoil.

Comments: Soyoil has been finding support from year high in palm oil futures (as reported here on weather), and China liked our price better this time (alluded to above); NOAA sees a warm south but “unclear” on Midwest/northeast; Brazil weather conditions overall reported “favorable” for plantings/growth; China sees favorable weather for mature beans in northern and central areas; China PMI a bit negative their economic growth; India says rains/cool giving way to warmer/drier conditions favoring maturing crops; no deliveries; Informa at 10:00?; open interest fell 6,500 led by Nov./Jan. off 9700 combined, volume fairly light; best way to opinionated—-new low swing close turns me neutral speculatively, otherwise treating as a trading affair with a light buying bias.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: U.S. southern plains see more beneficial rains; USDA Attache’ sees crop off 1.5mln.m/t’s to 10.5mln. (no surprise); open interest fell 6,700 led by Dec. off 12,700 amid strong volume (I suspect long liquidation enhanced by the India news, by the IGC global estimate and the easing of weekly export sales pointing to new swing lows).

Wheat Export sales 69% of USDA projections vs. 56% yr.; corn 66% vs. 60%; and soybeans 86% vs. 71% yr.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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