Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 10/8/13
MORNING GRAINS 10/8/13

Corn:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Only news around is that December corn cannot get past the $4.50′s, likely due to hedging and perhaps some “fund defense” of longs (under my breakout rules as mentioned yesterday, all new shorts now out of pocket); open interest rose another 4,100 amid decent volume led by March/Sept. (take another look at my open interest/price breakout comments from last week); no USDA reports has been ‘fun’ to a degree but we needed to get that S&D out of the way as to acreage so we can sleep at night; so just maintaining calls (and hedges) so far.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: Taiwan buys 60,000t Brazil for April.

Comments: Taiwan cancelled 40-60,000t U.S. for Jan. delivery citing bulk cargoes are $10/ton higher than shipping them container style; CPO (crude palm oil) in Asia seeing sales hurt by its currency vs. the U.S. dollar; soyoil deliveries 150; China back from holiday, there stock markets mixed and harvest weather there north/central Ok in general; U.S. harvest weather overall improving?; open interest rosde 1300 even as November fell 10,800 amid moderate/good volume; November setting up a ‘double high’ at $13.05 area or a last bull defense before the rally triggers shortcovering? Still think its bullish generally that Asia still buying ‘new crop’ Brazil for April ship. Maintaining long calls and hedges.

Wheat:

Exports: Japan in 101,892t (37,000t U.S., rest Can./Aust.).

Comments: E.U. hits a 3-month high an U.S. December Chgo. near $7.00 on lowered Black Sea planting probability due to excessive rains; Midwest U.S. seen largely favorable for winter wheat plantings, central/southern plains mostly OK, though some rains needed; open interest rose 4, 460 led by Z/H amid light volume (shortcovering over and new fund longs emerging?). If not for the Black Sea problems, there were various reasons for this rally to tamped down as mentioned…now? not sure as price hits my old objective. I’ll let it sit a bit.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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