Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 10/4/13
MORNING GRAINS 10/4/13

Corn:

Exports: So.Korea cancels tender 140,000t, prices ‘too high’ (some buyers getting a bit ‘too cocky’?).

Comments: StatsCanada barley production 9.267mln.m/t’s vs. 8.8mln. in July; ADM house snuck in 110 ethanol deliveries (first and total month) stopped by the street; open interest rose 8,200 spread out between the Z-U contracts amid light volume (46,000 total now 4-day?); December stalling on its rally recovery for the reasons I outlined yesterday; some volume concerns on ideas there will NOT be a S/D report next week. Not much new. Likely to be tough to get Dec. back over $4.50 near term?

SOYBEANS:

Exports: Taiwan in 40-60,000t each U.S./Brazil

Comments: Rains a mixed bag with somke of it needed moisture and some of it harvest delaying; heavy snows in parts of the northern plains?; Taiwan’s Brazil tender for April ship again (their new crop) keeps reaching further for booking supplies; soyoil deliveries 775; StatsCanada Canola crop 15.963mln.m/t’s vs. 14.7mln. July; China still on holiday, their bean weather reports shows improvements north and central; southern MN. and north Iowa early harvest yields said below average for corn and beans; open interest rose 1,157 even as November falls 6,229 amid moderate volume. Still would like to see a close back over $13.00 November as before but need a better spark. Western S.D. a foot of snow; tornado in Nebraska both noted in news. But not bullish.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: 14-week high in prices attracting more notice and the dance floor might be getting crowded for us ‘independence’ minded wheat people and comes just when 1) Argentina gets beneficial rains in major southern crop areas, though more needed north; 2) India had 3 companies offer 160,000t wheat for immediate ship to help clean up some of their big storage but……bids “way too low” and likely be cancelled; 3) China reports no winter wheat planting concerns yet; 4) StatsCanada all-wheat production 33.02mln.m/t’s vs. 30.5mln. July; and, after mostly shortcovering 5) open interest rose 3,500 led by December up 1,316 amid decent volume. Could combined prompt some profit taking; might have to back off my ideas of $7.00 December but will advise.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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